Why You Should Use A Betting System As An Adviser Rather Than Blindly Following Everything They Pick
So I had an idea for a new betting strategy the other day that I was trying to turn into a system when I thought, what is the point in setting things in stone by assigning the tag 'system' to it.
As soon as you call something a system there is no wiggle room. There is no 'well this still looks like a good bet' or 'there's no chance that horse is going to win it has one leg!'. If the horse/team/whatever fits the rules you are obliged to bet on it otherwise you are not giving the system a chance.
A system that I myself advised that is running pretty hot at the moment advised a massive bet which I consider to be an anomaly because the two teams involved are too evenly matched for the predicted result to be considered a 'value bet'. You might think this is just my system showing its flaws but you will find these anamolous results in a number of systems in all sports. Just think of the last time you seen a selection come up in a system that you knew wasn't going to win, but it fit the rules for the system and the system had been running pretty good until this point.
This is why I say that a system should never be 100% followed, there should be flexibility in the system. For example imagine you bought a system that predicted draws in football matches. The next game that the system throws up is Liverpool vs Newcastle. All well and good this might be a draw, but then you learn from Sky Sports News that several of the Newcastle players are out with food poisoning. Should you still make the bet?
My point is this; a system has no way of knowing everything, a system cannot predict how a horse will fare in the weather conditions, it has no way of knowing what injuries have occurred making the result questionable.
Systems are facts and figures and that is it. It relies on how past events have unfolded to predict what will happen in the future, it has no way of keeping up with other events like the weather and injuries. This is where you come in; you add the human factor to betting systems and the better you are at refining and adjusting betting systems the better punter you will be.
So next time you buy a system do not blindly follow the selections it provides. Use the system as a general guide instead of a rigid rulebook. If a selection seems to be wrong because of X or Y then don't back it, if a selection that you feel is a great value bet is not within the parameters of the system then adjust it slightly (as long as you have good reason for your bet!)
Also remember that systems don't last forever, if a system is good and really does find inflated odds to secure profit sooner or later this gap is going to get closed out and your profit will shrink and disappear, it is at this point that your system depends on you instead of the other way around. When this happens it is up to you to adapt or die. This is a system that has been working for you, now you need to refine it so it works for you again.
So basically what I am saying here is that your knowledge is just as important as the profitability of a system. You should treat a system as an adviser, they are there to give you their opinion. You should use their selections, your own knowledge, recent news and any other piece of relevant information at your disposal to decide what to bet on.
As soon as you call something a system there is no wiggle room. There is no 'well this still looks like a good bet' or 'there's no chance that horse is going to win it has one leg!'. If the horse/team/whatever fits the rules you are obliged to bet on it otherwise you are not giving the system a chance.
A system that I myself advised that is running pretty hot at the moment advised a massive bet which I consider to be an anomaly because the two teams involved are too evenly matched for the predicted result to be considered a 'value bet'. You might think this is just my system showing its flaws but you will find these anamolous results in a number of systems in all sports. Just think of the last time you seen a selection come up in a system that you knew wasn't going to win, but it fit the rules for the system and the system had been running pretty good until this point.
This is why I say that a system should never be 100% followed, there should be flexibility in the system. For example imagine you bought a system that predicted draws in football matches. The next game that the system throws up is Liverpool vs Newcastle. All well and good this might be a draw, but then you learn from Sky Sports News that several of the Newcastle players are out with food poisoning. Should you still make the bet?
My point is this; a system has no way of knowing everything, a system cannot predict how a horse will fare in the weather conditions, it has no way of knowing what injuries have occurred making the result questionable.
Systems are facts and figures and that is it. It relies on how past events have unfolded to predict what will happen in the future, it has no way of keeping up with other events like the weather and injuries. This is where you come in; you add the human factor to betting systems and the better you are at refining and adjusting betting systems the better punter you will be.
So next time you buy a system do not blindly follow the selections it provides. Use the system as a general guide instead of a rigid rulebook. If a selection seems to be wrong because of X or Y then don't back it, if a selection that you feel is a great value bet is not within the parameters of the system then adjust it slightly (as long as you have good reason for your bet!)
Also remember that systems don't last forever, if a system is good and really does find inflated odds to secure profit sooner or later this gap is going to get closed out and your profit will shrink and disappear, it is at this point that your system depends on you instead of the other way around. When this happens it is up to you to adapt or die. This is a system that has been working for you, now you need to refine it so it works for you again.
So basically what I am saying here is that your knowledge is just as important as the profitability of a system. You should treat a system as an adviser, they are there to give you their opinion. You should use their selections, your own knowledge, recent news and any other piece of relevant information at your disposal to decide what to bet on.
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